The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (with a New

Description: The Fat Tail by Ian Bremmer, Preston Keat "Featuring a new preface that addresses the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis"--P. [4] of cover. FORMAT Paperback LANGUAGE English CONDITION Brand New Publisher Description As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accountsfor the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectivelymanage them. Written by two of the worlds leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation canstill dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constantvolatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it doesnot. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offerinnovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests."--Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politicallystable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist Notes An indispensable guide for anyone involved in the international economy, trying to understand the risks that come with exports and imports. Author Biography Ian Bremmer is the President of Eurasia Group and author of The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall. He is a contributing editor for Foreign Policy and The National Interest.Preston Keat is Director of Research at Eurasia Group. He presently teaches at Columbia Universitys School of International and Public Affairs. Table of Contents IntroductionPart 1: The Universe of Political RisksChapter 1: Geopolitical Risks: Risks rising from great power rivalries and international warsChapter 2: Terrorism: Risks arising from terrorist groupsChapter 3: Capital Markets: Risks from governments macroeconomic policies (defaults, capital controls)Chapter 4: Expropriations: Risks from a governments takeover of private propertyChapter 5: Regulatory Risks from governments changing the rules of the gameChapter 6: Domestic instability: Risks from government weakness and potential for internal strifeChapter 7: Unknown Risks: "Black swans," "known unknowns" and events that cannot be necessarily conceivedPart II: Analysis and Mitigation of RisksChapter 8: Methodology and Social Sciences ChapterChapter 9: Reporting of RisksChapter 10: Mitigation of RisksConclusionNew Afterword for the Paperback Edition Review "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have."--Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World"Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests."--Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc."Bremmer and Keat are right: economics produces cycles and even crises, but it is politics that has the power to turn crises into profound and lasting dramas. Their book should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable."--Bill Emmott, editor-in-chief of The Economist 1996-2003 and author of Rivals"In an uncertain age in which everyone from individual investors and CEOs to journalists and heads of state seems at times to be grasping in the dark for insights to where we are heading, Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have given us a unique roadmap, a forecasting toolkit that shines a light on our possible futures."--Robert Kagan, author of The Return of History and the End of Dreams"Wary of political risk and what it can do for you? Read this book which provides, replete with significant examples, how this growing art, with touches of science, can help you understand markets, investment climate, and the many changing economic circumstances impacted by critical political and security events around the world. Bremmer and Keat, both masters of this medium with many years experience, tell us how to understand political events and to gaugetheir impact on the critical business and economic decisions that many of us must make daily."--Thomas R Pickering, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and US Ambassador to Jordan,Nigeria, El Salvador, Israel, the United Nations, India and Russia"Bremmer and Keat, executives at Eurasia Group, explore how global political risks influence the business world in this cogently argued analysis. The book details key areas corporations must be wary of in order to survive in the new global economy including foreign laws and regulation, government changes, civil unrest, expropriation, terrorism and war. With excellent examples, the authors demonstrate how planning for such political developments may make orbreak a company."--Publishers Weekly"In these times of heightened geopolitical risk, political knowledge has become a hard currency. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have made an important contribution to the world of risk mitigation and business continuity in The Fat Tail."--Muhtar Kent, President and Chief Executive Officer, The Coca-Cola Company"Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have worked for years on the cutting edge of political risk management, and The Fat Tail provides us with a definite survey of the subject. It will be indispensible for global investors."--Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York UniversityCogently argued....With excellent examples, the authors demonstrate how planning for political developments can make or break a company.--Publishers Weekly Promotional Two of the worlds foremost authorities offer an invaluable roadmap for predicting and managing political risk Long Description As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accountsfor the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the worlds leading figures in political risk management, it revealsthat while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey,Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, andeven the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offerinnovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tailprovides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist Review Text "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have."--Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World"Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests."--Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc."Bremmer and Keat are right: economics produces cycles and even crises, but it is politics that has the power to turn crises into profound and lasting dramas. Their book should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable."--Bill Emmott, editor-in-chief of The Economist 1996-2003 and author of Rivals"In an uncertain age in which everyone from individual investors and CEOs to journalists and heads of state seems at times to be grasping in the dark for insights to where we are heading, Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have given us a unique roadmap, a forecasting toolkit that shines a light on our possible futures."--Robert Kagan, author of The Return of History and the End of Dreams"Wary of political risk and what it can do for you? Read this book which provides, replete with significant examples, how this growing art, with touches of science, can help you understand markets, investment climate, and the many changing economic circumstances impacted by critical political and security events around the world. Bremmer and Keat, both masters of this medium with many years experience, tell us how to understand political events and to gaugetheir impact on the critical business and economic decisions that many of us must make daily."--Thomas R Pickering, former Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and US Ambassador to Jordan, Nigeria, El Salvador, Israel, the United Nations, India and Russia"Bremmer and Keat, executives at Eurasia Group, explore how global political risks influence the business world in this cogently argued analysis. The book details key areas corporations must be wary of in order to survive in the new global economy including foreign laws and regulation, government changes, civil unrest, expropriation, terrorism and war. With excellent examples, the authors demonstrate how planning for such political developments may make orbreak a company."--Publishers Weekly"In these times of heightened geopolitical risk, political knowledge has become a hard currency. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have made an important contribution to the world of risk mitigation and business continuity in The Fat Tail."--Muhtar Kent, President and Chief Executive Officer, The Coca-Cola Company"Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat have worked for years on the cutting edge of political risk management, and The Fat Tail provides us with a definite survey of the subject. It will be indispensible for global investors."--Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York UniversityCogently argued....With excellent examples, the authors demonstrate how planning for political developments can make or break a company.--Publishers Weekly Review Quote "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they maynot yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World Feature Selling point: Provides the first systematic and methodologically sound approach to political risk for both investors and policymakersSelling point: Distills and demystifies complex analytic tool sets and makes them relevant to the real world of commerce and policySelling point: A new preface illuminates the strategic opportunities that have been created in the wake of global financial crisisSelling point: Timed to coincide with the publication of Bremmers next book The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations? (Penguin, May 2010, 9781591843016, $26.95) Details ISBN0199737274 Author Preston Keat Short Title FAT TAIL Language English ISBN-10 0199737274 ISBN-13 9780199737277 Media Book Format Paperback DEWEY 332.6 Year 2010 Publication Date 2010-07-08 Birth 1969 Subtitle The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (with a New Foreword) Position Attending Physician Imprint Oxford University Press Inc Place of Publication New York Country of Publication United States Affiliation Attending Physician, Carolinas Hospital System UK Release Date 2010-07-08 AU Release Date 2010-07-08 NZ Release Date 2010-07-08 US Release Date 2010-07-08 Illustrations 10 black and white illustrations, 10 line drawings Edited by Jean van Heijenoort Death 1979 Qualifications QC Pages 272 Publisher Oxford University Press Inc Alternative 9780195328554 Audience Professional & Vocational We've got this At The Nile, if you're looking for it, we've got it. 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