Bernoulli's Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science by Aub

Description: FREE SHIPPING UK WIDE Bernoulli's Fallacy by Aubrey Clayton Aubrey Clayton traces the history of the flaw that underlies modern statistics, beginning with the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoullis Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data—and how to fix it. FORMAT Hardcover LANGUAGE English CONDITION Brand New Publisher Description There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoullis Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it. Author Biography Aubrey Clayton is a mathematician who teaches the philosophy of probability and statistics at the Harvard Extension School. He holds a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, and his writing has appeared in the New York Times, Nautilus, and the Boston Globe. Table of Contents PrefaceAcknowledgmentsIntroduction1. What Is Probability?2. The Titular Fallacy3. Adolphe Quetelets Bell Curve Bridge4. The Frequentist Jihad5. The Quote-Unquote Logic of Orthodox Statistics6. The Replication Crisis/Opportunity7. The Way OutNotesBibliographyIndex Review An entertaining mix of history and science. -- Andrew Gelman, Columbia UniversityI like it! Anything that gets people thinking about the uses and abuses of statistics is important and Claytons book does just this. Fifty years ago E. T. Jaynes opened my eyes to the importance of Bayesian ideas in the real world and this readable account brings these ideas up to date. -- Persi Diaconis, Mary V. Sunseri Professor of Statistics and Mathematics, Stanford UniversityThis story of the statistics wars is gripping, and Clayton is an excellent writer. He argues that scientists have been doing statistics all wrong, a case that should have profound ramifications for medicine, biology, psychology, the social sciences, and other empirical disciplines. Few books accessible to a broad audience lay out the Bayesian case so clearly. -- Eric-Jan Wagenmakers, coauthor of Bayesian Cognitive Modeling: A Practical CourseAs well-written as it is fascinating, and for my money is the best single-volume work describing and contributing to the debates in modern statistics on the shelves today. It can be profitably read by those with no background in the field, but will surely contain new ideas for experts as well. Having read the book, I myself will never think about statistics the same way. -- Dominic Klyve * American Mathematical Monthly *A timely story, well-told. It makes a compelling case for a shake-up in the world of statistics that may just be strident enough to spark change. * MAA Reviews *The author writes with style and humor and tries to make the read minimally pedantic. * Non-Stop Reader *The book is highly accessible. . . . Even readers who ultimately disagree with the authors position will still benefit from reading this text. * Choice *Bernoullis Fallacy will be of use to readers of any mathematical background who wish to understand not only the math but also the motivations behind the rising Bayesian wave. It is a vivid, nontechnical look at the bees in the contemporary statisticians bonnet. * H-Sci-Med_Tech * Review Quote This story of the statistics wars is gripping, and Clayton is an excellent writer. He argues that scientists have been doing statistics all wrong, a case that should have profound ramifications for medicine, biology, psychology, the social sciences, and other empirical disciplines. Few books accessible to a broad audience lay out the Bayesian case so clearly. Details ISBN0231199945 Author Aubrey Clayton Publisher Columbia University Press Year 2021 ISBN-10 0231199945 ISBN-13 9780231199940 Format Hardcover Language English Imprint Columbia University Press Place of Publication New York Country of Publication United States Illustrations 12 b&w illustrations NZ Release Date 2021-08-03 US Release Date 2021-08-03 Pages 368 Publication Date 2021-08-03 UK Release Date 2021-08-03 Subtitle Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science DEWEY 519.2 Audience General AU Release Date 2021-08-02 We've got this At The Nile, if you're looking for it, we've got it. With fast shipping, low prices, friendly service and well over a million items - you're bound to find what you want, at a price you'll love! 30 DAY RETURN POLICY No questions asked, 30 day returns! FREE DELIVERY No matter where you are in the UK, delivery is free. SECURE PAYMENT Peace of mind by paying through PayPal and eBay Buyer Protection TheNile_Item_ID:132857686;

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